Imagine this scenario: you have a sailing yacht with a highly motivated crew. Internally, everything is running smoothly, and all processes are well-established. Your goal is to sail from the Netherlands (where I currently live) to Bali. The direct sea distance is approximately 12,000 km, and the yacht's speed is 37 km/h. The question is: how long will it take to reach your destination?
A simple calculation: divide the number of kilometers by the speed and the number of hours in a day, which results in a journey of 16 days. Our team expects that in 16 days, we will be basking in the sun in Bali, relaxing. We start booking hotels and planning excursions.

How do you view such a calculation and plan of action? Is it realistic and reasonable? Will everything go as planned, or is there something off? Or is this plan too idealistic, overly naive, failing to account for the weather conditions during such a long voyage on a sailing yacht?

Now, recall how strategic sessions for business are conducted. Let’s be honest: how many of the annual or even longer-term business plans you have set are constructed similarly? With precise mathematical calculations, broken down by months, even weeks. And then managers are surprised—why are we not meeting the projected targets?
For the same reason, the yacht is unlikely to reach Bali in 16 days, if at all—too many unforeseen events can occur over the course of a year. Yet, while common sense often prevails when it comes to nature, this is not always the case in business.
We must acknowledge that business, like weather, can be subject to a variety of conditions, risks, force majeure, currents, and much more. Different models and frameworks are developed to analyze such conditions in business and politics.

Let's consider an example of a model—the STACEY MATRIX. It comprises two axes: the vertical represents the clarity of goals, and the horizontal reflects the clarity of approaches and methods.
When everything is clear and straightforward (the bottom left corner), you are navigating calm waters with a gentle breeze. This is referred to as a simple system, where the plan is entirely feasible. However, in real life, we rarely operate within such simple systems.
More often, we find ourselves in complex systems, where the wind can blow in various directions, requiring the team to constantly maneuver. This scenario remains predictable but necessitates ongoing adaptation.
When we encounter storms, hurricanes, or tornadoes, we are dealing with a complicated system characterized by high uncertainty. This demands a complete mobilization of efforts and a readiness for continuous change.
The highest degree is chaos, where the vessel is breaking apart, and there is no clear direction. Conversely, the bottom left corner represents stagnation, which is also undesirable.
Our conventional management methods are designed for simple and complicated systems, not for dealing with chaos or highly intricate systems. Hence, it is crucial to identify the type of system you are in to adopt the most appropriate and effective management approach.

You may have already heard of the acronyms VUCA and BANI, which describe changes in the world. VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) pertains to intricate systems where the world becomes unstable and uncertain.
Following the pandemic, a new acronym emerged—BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible)—further highlighting the fragility of the modern world. In the past, the world was more stable, allowing for 25-year strategic planning, but the situation has drastically changed.
Today, companies often find themselves operating in a BANI world, where the "weather" is constantly shifting. A single company can rapidly transition from stormy conditions to calm. It is crucial to recognize that the systems you establish may become obsolete at any moment.
In a nonlinear world, establishing clear cause-and-effect relationships is challenging. This leads to increased anxiety and elevates stress and burnout levels among individuals.

Therefore, if we want to remain relevant in this world, it is essential to shift from stable plans and rigid roadmaps to adaptive goals. The most critical characteristic of these goals is their adaptability, ensuring they are in continuous alignment with the system, environment, situation, and conditions.

For example, when it comes to strategic sessions, scenario planning is becoming increasingly prevalent. Although it takes more time, the benefits are undeniable. The essence of scenario planning involves first analyzing our current "ocean" and identifying the key factors at play.
(By the way, I provide a detailed description of how to prepare for a scenario planning session using AI in my book, "AI-Powered Facilitation: Transforming Workshops from Preparation to Execution.")
We typically develop several scenarios, usually four or sometimes three, and examine how they unfold. Based on these scenarios, we set annual goals aligned with the most probable one while monitoring indicators that signal changes in scenarios. This approach allows for timely shifts and adaptations to new developments. Companies that adjust to these changes tend to be successful. Even with an annual goal, there's an understanding that circumstances may evolve, necessitating a shift in objectives. We live in a world of uncertainty, shrouded in fog. In such conditions, it's only possible to focus on the nearest clear time frame, which will depend on the current circumstances, whether it's a month or a quarter.

When setting an annual goal, we base it on the most likely scenario. However, it's crucial to continuously monitor early indicators suggesting the situation is evolving toward one of the other scenarios. Tracking these signs in a timely manner is essential for making necessary shifts and adapting to a new scenario. This approach enables companies to remain flexible and successful.

Even after setting a goal, it may shift due to changes. We live in a complex and convoluted world, often shrouded in uncertainty. As a result, we can only focus on the nearest clear time frame, adjusting our strategies as circumstances evolve.

Many companies are now leveraging adaptive frameworks like OKR (Objectives and Key Results) to manage changes and achieve strategic objectives. OKR evolved from traditional goal management to thrive amidst chaos and complex systems.
Let's briefly review the primary purpose of this system. OKR aids companies in managing change effectively, making the strategic goal achievement process more controlled, focused, and aligned throughout the organization. The principles of OKR include flexibility: even if the goals remain unchanged, we consciously pause to assess whether we are moving in the right direction. If adjustments are needed, we recalibrate our course; otherwise, we stay on track. Focus means selecting a maximum of three critically important goals, allowing resources to be concentrated on achieving breakthroughs rather than being spread thin.

Alignment signifies that company and team goals mirror each other, with teams setting their own objectives in alignment with the company's overall direction. This fosters cohesive teamwork and is especially vital in complex conditions, ensuring synchronized actions and transparency. In stormy conditions, it’s crucial for everyone to be able to seamlessly take on new tasks, even those they haven't previously handled.
The essence of adaptive goal setting is in continually asking about the current focus. Depending on the situation, this could be quarterly or monthly. We set a goal, measure progress regularly, celebrate successes, and conduct retrospectives to evaluate if we were on the right track and achieved our objectives. Learning from past experiences is integral, embedding continual learning into the team’s culture.

In OKR, goals are formulated with clarity, specifying what we aim to achieve and how we will know when the objective has been met. This involves defining clear, measurable outcomes that indicate success, ensuring everyone understands both the desired endpoint and the criteria for achievement.

Let's consider the example of a sailing regatta.

Our ultimate long-term goal is to win the ocean regatta cup. Currently, we are in the second stage of the race, facing a storm and hurricane conditions. As a team, we've set a goal: to overcome the hurricane and lead in the second stage of the race.
A clear goal not only defines what we want but also outlines how we'll know we've achieved it, typically through measurable indicators known as key results. What key results will indicate that we've overcome the hurricane and are leading in the second stage? What actions are necessary to achieve this? These might include conducting briefings, reinforcing equipment, and organizing team training sessions to prepare for and navigate the dangers.

Here's another example, from a marketing perspective: making our yacht regatta the premier event of the season. What are the key results? They could include an increase in registered participants, more spectators, and greater media mentions. We set specific, quantifiable desired results and actions to make this goal achievable.

This approach shifts employee mindset to become more results-oriented. It helps everyone understand the purpose behind their actions, creating a clear connection between what we do and our long-term goals, which may evolve over time.
Moreover, this transformation impacts corporate culture and leadership style. In a chaotic environment, a single person cannot manage everything; each individual must have the authority and courage to make critical decisions, while understanding the overarching goal and the actions of others. Transparency and a shared vision are crucial, empowering everyone to work cohesively and collaboratively towards common objectives.